Some time ago, the authority of many domestic automotive industry experts, based on the current low level of per capita vehicle ownership in China and the end of 2015 "V" type reversal of the new market situation, the future of China's auto market has made more optimistic judgments. It is expected that the next ten years, China's auto sales peak will reach 40 million, and even more is expected to reach 45 million. In this regard, I think this may be a serious misjudgment. According to the current situation, the peak annual sales of China's auto or will be less than 30 million, far lower than people's expectations.
Why do you say this way? There are three main reasons:
First, China's demographic structure determines the future car buyers will be less and less.
First of all, from the age structure, due to the implementation of more than 30 years of family planning policy, China is now beginning to enter the aging society, over 60 years of age population of more than 200 million, and showing rapid growth.
The radius of the activities of the old people, spending power determines their desire for cars and the ability to become smaller and smaller, and may even be the existing car directly to the next generation of consumption. Although the state has introduced the second child policy, but due to a variety of factors, short-term want to make a substantial increase in fertility population almost nonsense.
Second, from the distribution of population structure, the mind, the ability of people are to run in the big cities, the past decade, the county people to buy a house to buy a car in the city to the provincial capital to buy a car, and More capable people to the north, on the wide, deep buy a house to buy a car. In the eyes of experts, has great potential for three, four, five lines, how much the city's spending power, and now it seems to play a big question mark.
Second, the purchase of large cities will make the most spending power of the crowd want to buy a car but can not buy.
Due to congestion, environmental protection and other conditions of the hard constraints, the North, Shang, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other first-tier cities have already implemented the purchase policy, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Guiyang have joined, the next step, there will be more big cities to join this One row. The crowd of these cities the most spending power, want to buy a car, but no indicators, spending power was artificially suppressed.
Third, the development of shared cars will make a considerable number of people decide not to buy a car.
At present, the car, ride, car and other shared car market in full swing. For the younger generation, has gradually become accustomed to set the phone with a mobile phone, more and more business people have joined the ranks. No indicators, parking, your car and other factors plus "re-use, light have" the concept of the formation, will make many people abandon the car's plan.
Since there are so many unfavorable factors, the prospects for China's auto market is not very pessimistic? I do not think so, at present, China has 170 million car ownership, annual consumption of more than 24.5 million, regardless of the amount of ownership or annual sales are second to none in the world. The next five to ten years, car sales will remain high micro-growth, ownership may eventually more than 300 million.
Finally, add that the Chinese auto industry to make life better, there is a market potential, that is, exports. In 2012, China's auto exports for the first time more than 1 million, then decline year after year, only 73 million in 2015, accounting for less than 3% of total sales.
This shows that China's automobile, especially its own brand cars, despite greater progress than in the past, but pulled on the world stage stroll, or not. This shows that China's auto industry is still relatively weak competitiveness, on the other hand also shows that the international market to open up space is still great. If in this market can break a way to, even to 10%, that the number is also considerable. Only at that time, the Chinese auto industry is really in the real ability to eat. And only this kind of rice to eat at ease, eat up incense.
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