Domestic gasoline and diesel prices rise sharply or most welcome during the year

Posted on 5/25/2016 10:05:02 AM

After the domestic gasoline and diesel prices two consecutive increases, the international market price of crude oil is still not stopped rising pace. May 25 is the oil price adjustment "window." Market forecast, since in this period of international crude oil price average price levels continue upward, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will usher in "Three rising." Liter expected price rises of about 0.15 yuan, this year is the most significant increase.
Xinhua News Agency released the 24th oil price system data show May 23 the average price change in a basket of crude oil was 6.41%. According to estimates, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 200 yuan per ton. May 24 is the ninth business day of the valuation period.
In the current round of price adjustment period, international crude oil prices slipped after the first rose, the average price levels continue upward. Five trading days by wildfires in Canada, Nigeria and Libya production disruptions, the international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, May 17, Brent, WTI crude oil futures closing price reached the highest level since last November. The next four days, due to the Fed minutes hinted that it might raise interest rates, a stronger US dollar, and US crude oil inventories increased international oil prices fell slightly.
NDRC Price Monitoring Center analysis, consistent supply of crude oil exporting countries may interrupt the recovery of the market supply and demand balance further ahead of time, speculative funds have increased long positions in the futures market, the boom has not stop speculation, the market outlook up more likely. However, futures contracts and long term spreads narrowed, but also indicates that the market is relatively limited upside.
Since the end of last year, international crude oil prices continue to decline. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices early this year fell below $ 30 a barrel. Since mid-February, international oil prices were bottoming out trend, WTI and Brent futures prices relative to the lowest point or more than 80% and 70%, respectively.
January 13 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism to set the lower limit of the regulation, that is, when the international oil prices below $ 40 a barrel, gasoline and diesel maximum retail price is not reduced. Since then the international oil prices continued to rise, the National Development and Reform Commission on April 26 and May 11 for two consecutive price cycle raised gasoline and diesel prices.
Prior to bearish international oil market and oil prices expected Goldman Sachs recently begun to shift, Brent crude oil price forecast for this year from $ 39 to $ 45 a barrel. But the US oil services company Baker Hughes reports indicate that since October 2014 to reduce the number of rigs trend may end, indicating that the rise in international crude oil prices will reverse the decline in US shale oil production situation, supply may rise again.
NDRC Price Monitoring Center is expected later this year, oil prices will be $ 40 per barrel in the volatile activity to $ 60 range, below the $ 40 or $ 60 up over the possibility is not large, the price will be around $ 50 hub.
According to market estimates institutions Joyou information to this diesel prices increase 0.17 yuan per liter calculation, load 50 tons of trucks overloaded with hundred kilometers 40 liters, the monthly run 10,000 kilometers, fuel costs after the price adjustment will increase monthly cash 680 yuan. Month run 2000 kilometers, eight hundred kilometers oil private cars, gasoline prices increase 0.15 yuan per liter is estimated that private car owners will increase fuel costs 24 yuan a month or so.
So far this year, gasoline and diesel prices have experienced nine price cycle, which 1 down, 2 times increase, six times due to international oil prices below 40 dollars a barrel "price floor" without making adjustments. This year gasoline prices have raised a total of 145 yuan per ton and diesel prices 140 yuan per ton, the cumulative increase.

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