Two other forecasts are calling for sales to be flat or down slightly from a year ago, if only because this November has two fewer selling days.
But if even the more conservative projections are accurate, it would take an extremely weak December for 2015 to avoid beating the all-time high of 17.402 million, which was set in 2000. LMC Automotive said it is increasing its forecast for the year by 200,000 units to 17.5 million.
TrueCar estimates that sales will rise 3.9 percent this month from November 2014, which had two more selling days and one additional weekend. It projects a SAAR of 18.6 million, which would be the fifth-highest monthly rate ever. Edmunds projects a sales increase of 2.5 percent and a SAAR of 18.3 million, which would still be a 10-year high.
The company with the biggest incentive increase from a year ago is Volkswagen Group of America, which has upped discounts by 27 percent in a bid to keep showroom traffic up in the wake of its diesel emissions scandal. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and Hyundai both increased incentives by 13 percent.
At the same time, J.D. Power data shows that the industry’s average transaction price so far this month, $31,498, is the highest ever for November and the second highest for any month, behind only last December.
General Motors is expected to post one of the biggest year-over-year gains, according to TrueCar and KBB, though Edmunds projects GM to lose market share.
All three estimates show Ford Motor Co. increasing its share. Sales may fall slightly for American Honda, according to the Edmunds and KBB forecasts. KBB also shows Toyota Motor Sales posting a decline, but TrueCar and Edmunds project Toyota will achieve an above-average increase.
TrueCar said the VW Group will manage a small sales gain, but KBB and Edmunds expect it to post a large drop. Edmunds projects sales by the VW brand will plunge 27 percent.
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