Crazy prices worldwide market model without peace is opened.

Posted on 1/8/2015 5:30:05 PM

Starting this year, international crude oil prices as they opened the floodgates shut off, lows. January 7, as a crude oil benchmark Brent International fell below $ 50 a barrel, and finally in May 2009, a record low, compared to a maximum of $ 115 per barrel in June 2014, when the prices have fallen nearly 57%.
When the oil market came as a "crazy" whole financial market have no peace. Stock market crash, the influx of hedge funds based in the debt markets US bond yields in global bonds plummeted; Russia took passive adding exporter of crude oil from the oil price war is already miserable, while Japan and South Korea and other oil importing countries are smiling bloom.
Goldman Sachs expects 2015 oil price volatility will remain due to the abundant supply oil, weak global demand in the market to find a new equilibrium before, there is still the risk that oil prices continue to come down. Before reaching a new equilibrium between supply and demand, Iran and other emerging markets, the biggest challenge that oil exporters face, while China and other emerging markets, oil-importing countries are the biggest beneficiaries.
Hedge funds Great Migration
Falling oil prices triggered panic in the market, known as the current situation in the mode of "doomsday" risk aversion market is constantly pushing, the influx of capital bonds, gold and other assets safe haven.
January 7 yields on 10-year US Treasury fell sharply below 2%, the lowest reach 1.889%, yields on 30-year bonds is less than 2-year low; Japanese 10-year bond yields fell to 0.288 percent; Eurozone yields of German 10-year bonds fell to 0.443 percent, the 10-year French bonds yields fell to 0.720 percent.
The "king of the new debt," which is expected Gundlach (Jeffrey Gundlach) recently said in an interview that if the price of oil fell to $ 40, 10-year US Treasury yields will be reduced by 1%.
"2015 has just begun, currency blocs G3 (US, euro area, Japan) in yields of 10-year bonds have fallen to an average of less than 1%, which is an unprecedented phenomenon, even in 1930, yields on government debt in the United States and other countries the rates are higher than current levels. "said currency strategist at Citigroup Global G10 Steven Englander (Steven Englander).
Englander said: "Bond yields plunged the global economy shows serious investor uncertainty, if we are in a panic and there will be a conclusion."
And the US debt promotes stark contrast, the stock market in the United States cold, especially in the actions of the energy markets suffered a blank sing.
Falling oil prices make investors more worried about the prospects for energy companies, energy stocks for the outlook continues to deteriorate. It is reported that Wall Street stock analysts have lowered energy companies have earnings expectations.
Data provided by Thomson Reuters, analysts expect the S & P 500 index in the energy sector earnings for the fourth quarter of last year shrink 19.8 percent, much lower than previously expected growth of 6.4%. And analysts say it is the energy sector is expected in the first quarter profit fell 32.2 percent.
It is worth noting that gold as a traditional safe haven assets once again favored by investors.
January 6, spot gold rose $ 14, or 1.16%, reported $ 1218.50 / ounce, the highest rose to $ 1222.97 / oz.
Russia out of trouble "in the foreseeable future."
Russia's economy and is closely related to oil prices, oil prices fell rapidly offensive, just get respite Russian capital markets become precarious again.
Yesterday, the US dollar against the ruble rose 4 percent, following Tuesday exceeded 60 performance, the dollar against the ruble rose to 64 as of press time reporter, the dollar 63.1615 rubles.
Strategist Danske (Danske) Banco 米克拉谢夫 Chomsky (Vladimir Miklashevsky) said: "The 2015 ruble will face enormous challenges, currently there are no factors that can support its currency." He believes that commodity prices fall and investment from countries the trend of disinvestment emerging markets, "let the unfortunate assets in rubles."
Besides the ruble fell, the Russian stock and bond both cities also declined, Russia's debt to become the biggest decline in emerging markets, yields on 5-year bonds rose 822 basis points to 15.44 Russia %; the stock market is "Bear" tops the world in the MSCI World benchmark ranking, according to the US dollar, after taking into account dividends and stock prices, stock market returns of 42.3% Russians, Russian investors stock market in 2014 to become the world's worst loser.
Make the market even more disturbing is that the risk of default on Russian debt increased significantly.
Yesterday, reflecting the cost of the security risk of credit default swaps (CDS) bonds rose 5-year CDS once 100bps soared, rose to 630 basis points, then stepped back and closed at 595 basis points being the highest since March 2009 high.
The data provider Markit, said 630 bp CDS means that the next five years, the probability of sovereign default of 32% Russian, which is the highest probability of default since last year, Russia was Western sanctions.
Due to defend the ruble and against capital flight Central Bank of Russia last to spend a large amount of foreign reserves year.
Central bank data show that Russia December 1 last year, Russia's foreign exchange reserves totaled $ 361,000,000,000, almost a year, Russia's foreign exchange reserves by about $ 150 billion, just two weeks ended December 26, 2014 the Central bank of Russia threw out $ 26 billion in foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the currency markets, the fastest speed record since the crisis Ukraine.
Analysts pointed out that despite the current foreign exchange reserves are not sufficient to ensure that the Russian debt default in 2015, but if oil prices continue to fall this year, according to the current momentum, while revenues Russian government will be substantially reduced, by contrast shot rescue foreign reserves of the Central Bank Russian rubles pressure becomes greater.
Institute of International Finance (IIF), considering Russian dollar debt and capital flight long term facing the country, the Russian foreign exchange reserves of $ 330 billion is the danger line.
Japan, South Korea Le bloom
Fall in oil prices can be described as a tear of happiness, dependent on imports of oil to the Asian economies, oil prices undoubtedly will be a good opportunity "gold" to stimulate the economy.
Yesterday, according to media reports in South Korea, the South Korean Finance Minister Choi Kyung-hwan in the relevant government economic ministerial meeting, said that oil prices for economic recovery in South Korea offers a great opportunity.
Choi Kyung-hwan, said: "The recent oil price in the international market fell phenomenon, the reason is that the supply of oil, instead of the sharp drop in oil demand, the Korean economy will contrast deflation problem , international oil prices will be. South Korea to inject new vitality into the economic recovery, oil prices should make good use of the opportunity to restore growth in domestic demand, prosperity revive the domestic market. "
Fall in oil prices, but also by the Japanese business community are welcome.
The governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, the Christmas speech, said: "Japan is a commodity importing countries, oil prices fell from a lot of benefits."
It is reported that Japan's annual imports of oil and liquefied natural gas over 20 trillion yen (US $ 167 million). METI under the Resources and Energy Agency released data show that as of December 22, 2014, in Japan the average price per gallon of regular gasoline fell to 149.10 yen (US $ 1.25), from late October last year, a decrease of 6.7%, therefore, due to low oil prices have benefited from manufacturers, retailers and individual consumers.
Takashi Hibino, second largest brokerage Daiwa Securities Group (DSG) The president of Japan, said recently: "Oil prices have a major positive impact on the Japanese economy, our economy without any negative effects."
Given the increase in the short term is not optimistic scenario oil prices, investment agency said, as a major oil-importing countries emerging Asian economies continue to benefit from oil prices, is expected to economic growth in emerging Asia in 2015 or in 2014 from 4.3% to 4.7%.

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