International oil prices soared 25 percent three-day multi-agency still bearish outlook

Posted on 9/2/2015 11:09:59 AM

Prices really bottomed out yet? Currently, differences between long and short sides of this topic has reached unprecedented heights.
Monday (September 1) As of three days, the international oil price soared 25 percent, its biggest three-day gain since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, and after, Brent crude was plunged $ 42.51 / barrel. At press time, the Brent crude oil plunged more than 6%.
Topix futures analyst crude gold Xiao told the "First Financial Daily": "As far as we expected, WTI target price of $ 40 / barrel, Brent crude oil was $ 45 / barrel, probably in the range 35-40 in the second half, But the situation in the first quarter of next year could be worse. Caterpillar 320D injector valve "In addition, GRZ Energy Chairman Anthony Grisanti is considered, within three days from the crude oil market turned overbought oversold, and predicted oil prices will test $ 30 / barrel this price ʱ??
However, crude oil has always been "big bear" Goldman Sachs has reversed the attitude. On Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that last week's action to create global investors hedge energy market oversold situation, it is recommended to buy call options, such as $ 70 per barrel in January 2016 to buy S & P Energy's call option to FIG. use profits rebound after this round of repression.
Bullish camp: oversold rebound after reasonable
"Oversold bounce", "bargain hunters" are almost reflexively trading strategy, which is also reflected in soaring oil prices.
You may wish to review the reasons for the amazing gains in international oil prices three days before and behind.
August 28, there are reports that Venezuela contact other OPEC (OPEC) member countries, recommended the convening of an emergency meeting and called for negotiations with Russia to develop strategies to deal with crude oil prices, oil prices immediately soared 10.3%.
August 29, by covering the short side, the large US refineries fault, Yemen and other Middle East conflict upgrade multiple bullish factors supporting crude oil prices continued to rise sharply, oil prices rose another 6.3%.
September 1, oil prices still upside, in one fell swoop bald month of decline. Widely believed that the presence of oil better for two reasons: First, the US crude oil production decline. Monday the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a report, the US 6 to produce 930 million barrels of oil / day, had 940 million barrels / day; the second is OPEC (OPEC) to prepare interviewed other oil, in order to achieve "fair price."
Visible to support oil prices because the production is expected to decline. On the same day evening, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, said that if oil prices maintain the current level, Russia may cut production, and is prepared to discuss the issue with OPEC to stabilize oil prices; Bank of America expects, OPEC may try to Brent crude oil prices at $ 50 / barrel.
Moreover, a positive factor can not be ignored is the "oversold bounce." Earlier, emerging market volatility exacerbated the panic sell-off mood.
JonesTrading the latest Dave Lutz said the sharp rebound in the oil market because the market has a lot of traders to short crude oil, and these short positions are now open up.
"According to the US CFTC data, since mid-June, the hedge fund short positions accumulated a lot of oil in the United States, the position is equivalent to 1.6 million barrels, far higher than in mid-June level of 60 million barrels." Dave Lutz said.
It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs analysts also bears turn cattle. Monday, John Marshall and Katherine Fogertey Goldman Sachs analysts said in the report, found that the energy market sentiment and positions are reversed weeks. Last week, investors' risk aversion to global energy industry assets to create a market capitulation mood to give up resistance, current can buy call options related to the use of a profit rebound after this round of repression.
Goldman did not go into the market supply and demand, but with technical analysis, that the selection of three kinds of investment in the energy flow of the strongest tools: American WTI, the American Petroleum United States Oil Fund Index Fund Index Fund and Energy Energy Select Sector SPDR, observe their stealth volatility and skewness right to buy the right to sell (put-call skew), in order to track changes in investor sentiment.

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